Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Commentators Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."